Seasonal Analysis
Historical Bitcoin price patterns by month, quarter, and halving cycle
Current Halving Cycle
Current Cycle
Halving cycle #
Days Since Halving
774 days until next
Cycle Phase
Mid-cycle bull market - historically sees strongest price appreciation
Cycle Progress
Through 4-year cycle
Bull Market Phase Analysis
Mid-cycle bull market - historically sees strongest price appreciation
Bull Market Phase: 12-18 months post-halving, Bitcoin typically enters a strong bull market as reduced supply meets increasing demand. Historical peaks occur 12-18 months after halving. Watch for euphoria and mainstream media coverage as potential top signals.
Monthly Performance Analysis
Best Month
+0.5% avg return
Worst Month
-0.3% avg return
Current Month
Historical avg: +0.5%
💡 About Monthly Seasonality
Bitcoin exhibits seasonal patterns, with certain months historically outperforming others. November and December are typically strong (year-end rallies), while June and September often see weakness (summer lull, tax selling). However, these patterns are statistical averages and don't guarantee future performance. Use seasonality as one factor among many in your analysis.
Quarterly Performance
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
50% win rate
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
51% win rate
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
49% win rate
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
53% win rate
💡 Understanding Bitcoin Seasonality
Halving Cycles: Bitcoin's supply issuance is cut in half every ~4 years (210,000 blocks). This creates a predictable supply shock that historically drives bull markets 12-18 months post-halving. The cycle typically follows: Accumulation → Bull Market → Distribution → Bear Market.
Monthly Patterns: Certain months show consistent patterns due to tax selling (April, September), year-end rallies (November, December), and summer lulls (June, July). These patterns are statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
Using Seasonality: Combine seasonal analysis with on-chain metrics, technical indicators, and macro factors. Seasonality is most useful for timing entries/exits within broader trends. Don't trade seasonality alone—use it to refine timing of high-conviction trades.